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Preparing for the Long Haul
By Andy | April 23, 2009
With his budget Darling may well have done as well as he could given the cards he had to play. But if we weren’t clear already then this budget has made it crystal clear — we are all facing up to life in a fundamentally different world. Labour will need a new vocabulary and a new approach to politics before it will be able to cope with the challenges of the next decade.
For many on the left the new tax rises for those earning more than 150,000 was something to cheer about. But the cheering won’t last long. The deepest recession since the war means we’re entering the sharpest period of austerity since the war.
Much of our world (in Labour) is defined by a commitment redistribution and to the public sector as the primary means of achieving it. However, we now face a long period of what amounts to zero growth in public sector budgets. And it may get even worse as so few people believe in Darling’s growth predictions. This budget may just be the first installment in what will amount to an even more painful hit on public finances.
George Osborne was right when he said that we were in a new world. Labour cannot simply treat the Tories as before. At the moment there does appear to be a clear difference between the two sides with Labour wanting to preserve spending as much as possible. But if Darling’s predictions are over-optimistic then this divide may be seem less clear in the months to come. By early next year it will be clear whether Darling has missed his growth targets and Labour really will be on the defensive.
Starting Over
Labour will have to deal with the most fundamental of questions, what is the Party for? The issue is not so much how do we differentiate ourselves from the Tories but more about what on earth are we about — at least for the next decade.
As a Party we will have to find a new vocabulary with which to define new sets of policies and priorities. The past is bust and so are the policies that went along with it.
The Role of Members
Normally, at this point, I would be making a plea that ordinary members, Party supporters and natural communities of interest need to be able to have their say and to properly become involved in a long term policy debate. I still believe that this is right but am realistic to realise that we simply do not have the mechanisms to do so. But maybe we don’t even have the will.
Leadership
It is probable that a change in leadership will be necessary before we can even begin to embrace a new policy discussion. To put in bluntly, only a new leadership will be able to blow away all of the crap that needs to go before we can move forward.
Now, I have no idea who the new leader should be or even who I would want to see in the role. And I suspect that there will be no change before a General Election.
The one thing that I am certain about is that the battle for succession will intensify over the coming weeks. I don’t like the prospect of this, or look forward to it, but it is kind of inevitable. Many Party members will find this fight unpleasant and unpalatable (and so it will be). But members need to be finely tuned to the words, sentiments and principles spouted by the young bucks. It’s not snappy ideas that I will be looking for but honesty, integrity and an overwhelming sense that — as a Party — we must explore the future together.
Names in the Frame
It is by no means clear who’s names are in the frame, although we are very clear about the ambitions of some.
We were talking — in our house last night — about the Ministers who are doing well at the moment (it is all too easy to see those who are doing badly). In broad terms the best performers are those who are keeping their heads down and sticking to their briefs.
Milliband senior has obviously been listening to some wise council. He no longer makes policy wonk speeches that range across the full breadth of politics, rather he is concentrating on foreign affairs. Alan Johnson is quickly getting on with life and will be under no illusion as to what the new economic orthodoxy will mean for health. Hillary Benn continues to keep his head down and concentrate on farmers. Even Hazel is uncharacteristically quiet these days.
I don’t take the silence of any of these folks to be a sign that they are interested in leadership. I do think, though, that these politicians know that the game is up. If Gordon wants to blunder on then so be it.
It is those who put themselves in the front line who are the disasters. Brown is surely now finished. I look at his tired, drawn, features and wonder how on earth he can survive a General Election campaign. Ed Balls has come out of the last few months really badly, clutching at increasingly meaningless sound bites and lunching with anyone who will listen to his dreams of future leadership. Harriet is frighteningly out of her depth and having to deal with the attentions of the No.10 attack dogs. Purnell can’t resist popping up occasionally but when he does he create chaos. Of those who don’t have the luxury of keeping out of the front llne only Darling and Mandelson seem to be coping at all well
Start Thinking of the Future Leadership
Although I shy away from such debates it is no time to start thinking about new leadership. We should now be looking for the open and honest discussion now that might just point the way forward in the future.
This is not a time to be thinking of dream tickets, not least because our favourites have to n returned at the next election first. I’m struck by how many members think Cruddas will play an important role in the future of the Party but Jon faces a real threat in his own constituency.
Like it or not the next leader will come from (what’s left of) the Labour Heartlands. You know who they are. Those of us who stay in the Party will have to make the choice of one of them, so it’s time to start listening carefully.
A New Politics
Many of the bar room strategists in Westminster pour scorn on the notion of the rainbow alliance view of politics. And yet Labour must once again be seen as the Party with a vision that can unite a wide range of progressive interests. It is a difficult task that can only roll out over the long term.
We will need a policy review process that can embrace and inspire many. But we will need a leader first who is comfortable in doing that.
The race for Labour’s future started the moment when Darling sat down yesterday.
Topics: Party Reform, Westminster Village |
April 23rd, 2009 at 4:30 pm
” Brown is surely now finished. I look at his tired, drawn, features and wonder how on earth he can survive a General Election campaign.”
I have a feeling he may not have to, Andy. If I were a gambling man, I would put money on two things:
1) That Labour will get a severe thrashing in June at the EU elections
2) If so, the Blairites will push for an immediate leadership election. Deluded and daft though they may be they are none the less fiercly competitive. I was watching pop-eyed Hutton and Tory Boy Purnell rubbing his face yseterday during the budget speech (I swear the Clunking Fist actually dozed off for a minute or two, round about 1.00). I am sure in their own mind they believe that ll they need is a good dose of Blairism to change their fortunes. I suspect that Straw, all things to all men, will be installed as a sort of caretaker leader while David Miliband tries to put his banana behind him, Purnell tries to get a bit matey and whomever else fancies their chances tighten up their act for the big one after the next election. The best chance more traditional Labour have is if Jon Cruddas can be bolstered a bit, but I suspect, very sadly, that Labour WILL choose another Blairite to lead them through a couple of election defeats - I don’t think they learned anything from the drubbings the Thatcherites got when they tried to turn back the clock with Hague, Duncan-Smith and Michael Howard.
As regards the budget, although very firmly on the left that sop about the 50p tax did not impress me. It will bring in so little money (rich men have a habit of being able to get round most things thanks to their accountants) it has caused a lot of negative publicity (for the left as well as the Blair/Brown faction). On the scrapping of old cars, I know more poor people than richj ones, and in my experience anyone driving a 10 or more years old car is because that is all they can afford. £2000 isn’t going to go very far when you have absolutely no spare money.
Peering into my crystal ball I’d say that Straw will be elader from July to, say, next May, then the “new” leader will take over in July 2010. But whomever wins, will neverv become Prime Minister. I suspect Labour will be out of office for at least two parliaments and anyone becoming leader in 2010 will not still be leader of the opposition ten years later. In which case, I hope that dreadful, crypto-Tory Purnell “wins”.
One other thing: I have quite a soft spot for Harriett - she means well, I think. She never annoys me in the way the awful Lady Bathplug does with her tight-fisted avarice, or the condescending way two now departed ministers, Ruth Kelly and ghastly Patricia Hewitt did. St pauls College or no, I think she does have a certain rapport with people of all classes, and she has never acted like a grande-dame like Maggie Hodge does: The Dutchess of Barking.