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The Brown Bounce: Reality Please !!!
By Andy | September 26, 2008
I couldn’t bring myself to go to conference this year. My mates who did are not overjoyed about Brown’s bounce back in the opinion polls. And now, the bloggers are joining in too — see posts from Luke Akhurst and Peter Kenyon! People, have we not learnt from last year? This is too soon to start making any judgements about the conference season. However, there is quite a lot to think about from conference and much of it is unsettling.I feel a little sorry for Gordon. It was the view of pundits, members and the public alike, that he had to produce the speech of his life at conference. In many ways he did. Whatever you think about the content this was a more assured speech than any he has given in recent years. But even while the applause was ringing in the Cabinet’s ears things began to unravel. This conference left me with more questions and — if I’m honest — more concerns.
Lack of Discpline
One of the biggest problems of this leadership machine seems to be its lack of discipline. I this regard it was Gordon, or his team, that caused their biggest problems! Their dislike of the Blairites — even open animosity — was everywhere to be seen.
First up was that ‘novice’ joke. Despite Brown’s statesman-like protestations the political press were ‘briefed’ that there was to be some put down of Milliband. They were waiting for it and it came. Non of the press corp. were in any doubt that there were two meanings to this comment.
Next up was the case of Geoff Hoon, place on Newsnight to offer support to the Prime Minister. Earlier that evening somebody ‘leaked’ that the Prime Minister was thinking of sending Hoon to Brussels as Peter Mandelson’s replacement as EU commissioner. Paxman’s first question to Hoon was “are you going to Brussels”. The poor guy was placed in a ridiculous position and, frankly, this made the Party loo ridiculous. Hoon was left simply repeating the mantra that he wanted Mandelson to remain in post. He tried to get on to the subject of the day, supporting the Prime Minister, but this was possible.
And then there was the Ruth Kelly affair, No 10 back room staff — apparently round up by the Tories — declaring war on Kelly in a late night drinking session.
Now, I have don’t hold any candles for Milliband, Kelly or Hoon but there is no doubt that ‘aids’ to the PM were happily stoking the fires. One of the puzzling things about Brown’s operation is the way he sees to surround himself with people who are — shall we shall diplomatically — are a little volatile! In these cases were they being disloyal, acting to orders or just plain pissed? Either way, this is is Brown’s team; he picked them. I’ve no doubt that the Balirites left conference in no doubt that the next stage of the war had begun.
Veteran journalists , who demand respect, were in no doubt. Both Jon Snow and James Naughtie said that they could not remember a Party conference when so many leading politicians were (in private) so prepared to talk about their unhappiness with their leader.
Conference Presents
There were other things to worry about. Watching conference at home I was struck by how one dimensional Brown’s Party presents itself at. Brown’s Party is old, grey and male. Where the women giving keynotes? Where were the younger one on Newsnight and the other heavy shows? There was virtually no platform for minorities other than old, old stagers. And, of course, there was no place for Cruddas even though he was the most popular of the Deputy Leadership contenders with ordinary members.
The best ‘performance’ from senior politicians (that I heard) came during a Radio 5 fringe. Here a number of Ministers and senior figures worked in relays to answer the questions of the public. Senior Ministers and Brownites ere very unconvincing. The best performers were Blunkett and Flint who dealt head on with the issues raised by the audience. We needed more of this kind of performance at conference.
Looking to the Future
It is the policy of this blog not to endlessly speculate about the leadership, and I’m not going to here. But, for me, this was a conference that signalled the beginning of the next leadership contest. Whether Brown goes before the next election, as a result of an election defeat or shortly after a narrow victory is not the point. Here the future lines of combat where being rehearsed in the open. Brown seemed not to feature in any of them. The battle lines are beginning to be clear although, this time around, there is enough doubt to make things interesting.
There will clearly be on camp rallying around the Blair legacy. Whether this is led by Milliband remains to be seen. He will need the support of people who sem not to rate him at the moment. If Brown goes beyond the next general Milliband will be joined by Purnell and Burnham who I’m sure still have their eyes on an opportunity. The fixers and campaign managers are there already as well as those who — I guess see themselves as potential deputies.
A second camp is coming together around the next generation of Brownites with Balls putting himself all around the place. The Brownites are well placed, for example, Charliee Wheelan at Unite. If anyone puts the knife into Brown it will be these guys. Imagine Gordon leading us to an election nightmare. Who would have any time for Balls, Wheelan, Austin and the rest? These guys will be watching the polls as closely as Milliband and Blears.
And then there is the third camp, a growing coalition around Cruddas and Compass. Cruddas is refreshing in his desire to debate real issues and to re-consider some of the political ‘givens’ that have no been rendered obsolete.
As an ordinary member all of this leadership stuff leads me cold. We are at the mercy of Parliamentarians. We have to stand in line, like good girls and boys, while the ’seniors’ deal with the real stuff. Only Cruddas stands with any kind of group that is committed to genuine involvement. He seems to be the only one of this bunch who might be interested in I — or any other member — might think. Whether he is a player or not is a bit irrelevant. He deserves attention. For me, he is the only one who comes out of conference with credit. And he wasn’t an official fixture at conference at all!
Topics: Westminster Village |
September 26th, 2008 at 11:40 am
I quite like Jon Cruddas too, Andy, and if Andy Burnham is a Blairite (and he is camp enough to be so) at least he is not so patronising and contemptable as some of the others (Minibrain and Hutton especially). I felt sorry not so much for Ruth Kelly as her husband: it reminds you of when “Richard Bucket” had to gtake early retirement in “Keeping up Appearances” and dreaded having to spend more time with his wife “Hyacinth Bucket”. Just like Hyacinth, I am sure Ruth wears the trousers in her house - and the string vests and rugby boots, so his nice peacefuil days are gone.
As regards Brown’s contempt for the Blairites: ell, especially in the case of the pillock on his gap year - Miliband really asked for it himself, didn’t he? A 4 page “at home for the Daily Mirror last weekend, and a gushing feature in the NL house magazine “The Times”. Miliband makes it quite clear he is desperate for the top job, and I thought the “novice” jibe as funny as it was accufrate. Minibrain has the uncanny knack of saying the obvious at the same time as making it sound as if he is the first person to think of it. Mind you, he would go down a bomb with the psuedo-intellectual New Labourites who drool at otiose phrases like “best practice”, which mean nothing but sound clever. The unions detest Miliband, though, so even if he becomes leader it will be a war of attrition with the unions just like it was with Auntie Tony.
But after Wednesday (and did Kelly jump before she was pushed, does she want to be the new Charlie Clarke from the backbenches, because Miliband is an old flame, and she wants to see the boy wonder as leader, or did No 10 want to do her in and leak the news?) I couldn’t help thinking that at least the Tories had the decency to let old Duncan-Smith have a week or two after the conference “standing ovations” to savour his “triumph” at Conference before delivering th coup-de-gras: you get the feeling the New Labour duckies will be at each others throats in earnest on Monday.
If I were Brown, I would use the reshuffle to fill the cabinet with cronies and despatch the Blairites - I am sure Purnell would make an ideal sports minister (he’d probably enjoy going into football changing rooms on match days) and Hutton could be given Minister of Paperclips, and the novice could do with a demotion. Then I woudl tell the Blairites that if they dared to try to force a leadership election, I would recommend the Queen to dissolve Parliament - that would keep them quiet.
September 26th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Andy, this is a superb article. I have always rated your views, having worked you at work in influencing local government, and so I am inclined to take your analysis very seriously. I think you’ve articulated what many members feel but have not been able to say without coming across as bitter or “disloyal”. Don’t lose too much heart. Like you say, there are SOME MPs who want to get Labour to “think out of the box”, talk to members and refresh itself. Cruddas is a good start. Hopefully more will follow. Wishing you a good weekend.
September 26th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Thanks M> I’m not loosing heart. THe Labour Party does this to you. Often! I’m used to it!
September 28th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Yet another theory today: that Purnell leaked the news of Kelly’s resignation to embarrass number 10. That is what No 10 say, Purnell’s “friends” say “this is nonsense, he wouldn’t do that to a friend” (does he have any?)
This seems to be even better reason to sack Purnell and the other “ultra Blairites” who remain in the cabinet. As for Purnell, perhaps he should go for the sex change operation, call himself Miriam, and then perhaps David Abrahams or David Freud would make an honest woman of him - perhaps even Lord Levy. He likes ‘em rich. I can just see him, with his blond wig and bling, knocking back the gifilte’fish bagels in a luxury mansion.
October 3rd, 2008 at 11:04 am
Well, I won’t be voting Labour again - ever.
Brown must have been feeling a bit queer when he drew up his reshuffle - he has bought back that oleaginous little Turd Peter “Mandy” Mandelson to the cabinet.
Twice disgraced, this oily little schmuk is the best Brown can come up with…oh and he has dragged the Bride of Frankenstein back from the grave too, let’s hear it for Maggie Beckett - Lady Horseface herself.
Honestly, Andy, how can you any longer defend this pack of incompetent idiots?
October 6th, 2008 at 4:23 am
I can’t wait to hear your observations on the return of the nancy Nazi, Andy……